Latest Poll for Battleground States Shows Good News for Trump, Why Harris Team Should Start Sweating

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    AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall

    So what happened to that bounce that Kamala Harris was supposed to get after the DNC and maybe the interview that she finally got around to doing? 

    Turns out fake “joy” and a train wreck interview don’t tend to give you much of a bump. 

    We’ve reported on how Nate Silver’s model wasn’t looking good for Kamala. It had Trump up in the Electoral College forecast, as well as in most of the battleground states. 


    READ MORE:  Nate Silver’s Latest Election Projection Model Will Crush Liberal ‘Joy’


    Silver said: 

    But instead of that, the new Trafalgar Group poll confirms there’s no real bump for Harris, the honeymoon may be over, and their numbers in Pennsylvania are not good for Harris. Indeed, the survey has Trump up by 2.1 points in Pennsylvania, 47 to 44.9 percent, up 1.1 in Wisconsin, 47.3 to 46.2 percent, and basically a dead heat in Michigan, with Trump up by a smidgen, 47 to 46.6 percent. 

    Michigan is supposed to be Harris’ best state but if it’s that close, she’s got a problem. Plus, the other battleground states — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina — all tend to run better for Trump than Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Time to start sweating for the Harris folks. 

    Newsmax also makes a good point about the skewing caused by outlier polls, talking about the current Real Clear Politics average. 

    As with any poll, you always have to put in the proviso: it’s a poll, and you have to check the cross tabs for things like oversampling Democrats. Trafalgar is pretty even. We’ll have to check some additional polls as they come out, but it’s looking like Trump is positioned well at this point.

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