Top Democrat politicians and operatives fear polling numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania show Vice President Kamala Harris running behind former President Donald Trump, Axios’s Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei reported.
The report confirmed private Harris campaign polling from earlier this week that showed Harris is in a lot of trouble, according to political analyst Mark Halperin.
A survey published Wednesday by Quinnipiac, a pollster that is historically biased towards Democrats, found Trump took a three-point lead in a head-to-head matchup in Wisconsin and a three-point lead in Michigan, while Harris led Trump in Pennsylvania by three points. All three state polls were within the margin of error.
“There’s growing worry among Democrats that Harris seems stuck, even sliding a bit, after a strong start to her young presidential campaign. Her media blitz, heavy spending and largely favorable coverage don’t seem to be moving the needle much, if at all, these Democrats say,” according to Allen and VandeHei, explaining the race dynamics:
- Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania, the site of the first assassination attempt, for a massive rally with Elon Musk last Saturday — and held double-headers Wednesday in Scranton and Reading. Harris is heading to Erie for her 10th Pennsylvania visit on Monday, and her campaign says it knocked on 100,000 doors in the state on Saturday alone.
- Michigan is the most complex swing state — where Democratic erosion among union members, Arab Americans and young men all collide. It has one of just three Senate races the Cook Political Report rates a toss-up, along with Ohio and Wisconsin. Last month, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), who’s running for Senate, warned donors that her internal polling showed Harris was “underwater” in Michigan, Axios scooped.
- In Wisconsin, Cook this week moved the re-election race of Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) to toss-up from “Lean Democrat.” Axios Sneak Peek last week scooped that Democratic insiders suddenly fear they could shockingly lose the critical contest. Trump on Sunday visited Wisconsin for the fourth time in eight days.
Halperin, a political analyst on The Morning Meeting, said Wednesday that his consensus is that Harris faces significant risks in the three battleground states, complicating her path to victory:
I’m telling you is happening in private polling is she’s got a problem … So the new New York Times poll shows her up three nationally. We all know that three is like the bubble point, right? If she’s up three, she’s got a chance to win the Electoral College, but they’d rather be at four, and they don’t want to be at two. So three is right at the bubble. I’m not saying this Times poll’s right. But it’s in line with international polls … Wall Street Journal has a story about Democrats really worried about the three Rust Belt states. We all know from our contacts in both campaigns that Pennsylvania is tough for her right now. And with that Pennsylvania, there are paths, but there aren’t many. There’s no path with that Wisconsin. So you see here, Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign poll shows Harris down three in Wisconsin. We all said yesterday, Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse for Harris than before. Baldwin has Harris down three … Why is the Baldwin campaign sharing its polling with the Wall Street Journal? Good question.
Wendell Husebo is a political reporter with Breitbart News and a former RNC War Room Analyst. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality. Follow Wendell on “X” @WendellHusebø or on Truth Social @WendellHusebo.
