Senate Majority (for now) Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) really needs to get acquainted with this thing all the kids are doing these days called “reality.” He thinks, it seems, that not only is Kamala Harris going to win the presidential election but that the Democrats are going to control the House of Representatives and the Senate. Even if current indicators weren’t all swinging towards the GOP, in an election that looks as close as this one, there just isn’t going to be an easy clean sweep for anyone – especially the Democrats.
Schumer outlined his thinking on Wednesday during a virtual rally hosted by the Jewish Democratic Council of America, Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and Jewish Women for Kamala. POLITICO obtained a portion of Schumer’s remarks in which he provided an update on where the party could make gains in the Senate.
“We have decent chances of picking up three seats: We’re even in Texas. We’re a point or two behind in Nebraska. We’re only 3 points behind in Florida. So … we’re right on the edge of keeping the Senate, of winning the House, of keeping the presidency,” Schumer told supporters during the event.
I’ll grant that the polls Senator Schumer cites are all pretty close. But Chuck, Chuck, your people are behind in every single one. Your presidential candidate, for the first time in decades, is polling behind the GOP candidate in national polling, and she’s barely holding a razor-thin lead in two of the seven key battlegrounds. Sure, Trump’s lead is equally thin in the remaining five, but if you’ll allow me to belabor the obvious, it’s much better to be narrowly leading in five of seven than in two of seven.
See Related: The Final Countdown: One Last Look at the Race, and My Predictions
As for the Senate, I gave my guess on that last Sunday, and I haven’t seen anything much to change my mind since then; I’m still figuring the GOP will take the Senate 52-48.
See Related: One Last Time: Wargaming the Senate
The House of Representatives is a tougher nut to crack, prediction-wise. Last week, I predicted a narrow GOP majority, but that could change. Some House seats are pretty dern safe and seldom flip parties (although we thought our Alaska at-large seat was a safe GOP hold until RCV was foisted on us), but others seemingly go back and forth on the to-the-moment whims of the voters. I still think Chuck Schumer is dreaming here, though.
See Related: The Art of Divination: Wargaming the House of Representatives
So, yeah, Senator Schumer, I think you’re whistling past the electoral graveyard. Oh, I get it; you’re the Senate Democrat leader, and part of leadership is keeping the troops’ spirits up. You have to project optimism; it’s part of the job. But what you’re doing here is much akin to arguing to Napoleon in 1812, “Oh, sure, Mon Empereur. You can take Moscow before winter. It won’t be a problem.”
There’s a big difference between optimism and flights of fancy.
Obligatory disclaimer: None of what Senator Schumer says is impossible, of course. Politics is a strange business, and this is a strange election cycle, so we shouldn’t be too surprised if strange things happen. But as of this writing – four days away from Election day – none of the indicators are looking good for the Democrats.
Not that you’ll catch me complaining about that.
