Early voting is done past, and some indicators are coming in as to turnout, and the demographics thereof. And there is small, if any, comfort for Democrats in these indicators. On Monday, Election Eve, the Trump campaign dumped some information on these indicators, and if they are causing Democrats’ lower lips to stick out, there should be plenty of people in the Trump/Vance camp wearing broad grins today.
With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own “data experts” and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.
Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, said on MSNBC that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.
Before we start popping the celebratory champagne, let’s take a look at some of the numbers. Bear in mind that urban cohorts trend, very broadly, to vote Democrat, as do women (not my wife!), while rural voters trend more conservative.
Arizona: Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020. Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Georgia: Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020. Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020
Michigan: Urban turnout is down -321.,523 votes compared to this point in 2020. Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020.
North Carolina: Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020. Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020. Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Nevada: Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020. Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020
Pennsylvania: Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020. Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Wisconsin: Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020. Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020.
Bear in mind that we won’t know what any of this really means until the final tally. But we also know there has been a groundswell change in early voting. Republicans have, historically, tended to wait until Election Day. Not so, it seems, this year; there are lots of indicators of Republicans hitting the early vote hard. I can tell you from my own experience standing 90 minutes in line to pre-vote in Wasilla a week ago, that this was a pretty heavily pro-Trump crowd, men and women alike.
If those trends hold – this could be catastrophic for the Democrats.
See Related: Americans Remain Divided Over the Integrity of This Historic Presidential Election
Republican National Committee Sues Milwaukee Over Poll Watchers
And consider this: If these indicators and the last few rounds of polling are near-correct, Trump and Vance will win – and the meltdowns from the left will be glorious, nothing but. It might almost be worth tuning into MSNBC to watch.
Almost.
A final note: Following these results, an undercover operator in the Harris/Walz campaign headquarters was able to surreptitiously record some of the conversations therein:
