We’ve seen some troubling polls for Joe Biden and some good news for former President Donald Trump.
Perhaps the most astonishing numbers we’ve seen lately have been the Rasmussen poll that says Joe Biden appears to have lost perhaps the last bastion he needed to hold onto: women. That poll had Trump up 10 points generally and 11 with women. Now, I said that might be an outlier poll that we’d have to see. But if it was anywhere close to being true, that should be setting off big alarm bells to Biden.
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Now our sister site Townhall’s Guy Benson is pointing to more data that just shows the huge red flags on the coalition that Biden needs that have to have him sweating. This analysis compares the 2020 numbers with the April 2024 polling. You can compare the left side (2020) to the changed 2024 right side, and you can see all the red flags across all the dynamics that Biden needs.
Via @LPDonovan, this Brookings analysis of Pew data (2020 exits & recent 2024 polling) is full of red flags for the Biden campaign re: their victory coalition. And the "best" news for Biden on the chart (Millennials) is an error that actually favors Trump: pic.twitter.com/OfnQbWoKE9
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) May 6, 2024
Trump is eating into Biden’s margin among quite a few groups, including dramatic improvements within communities of color. Based on these numbers, Trump has closed the gap by double-digit percentages among black voters (25 percentage points), Hispanics (13 points), and Asian-Americans (21 points). Looking at the far right column, the two “best” numbers for Bidens are typos. The chart shows a 13-point move toward Biden among 30-49 year olds (roughly Millennials) and a seven-point blue shift among Hispanics without college degrees. In fact, the actual data shows each of those two cohorts moving Trump’s way by those margins. In other words, there should be two more red bars on the graphic. The Brookings analysis even flags Biden’s decreased standing among this second-to-youngest voting group:
Also significant is the erosion of support for Biden among voters ages 30 to 49. This is the cohort most focused on family formation and most likely to become first-time homeowners, suggesting that the surging costs of child care and monthly mortgage payments may be reducing their support for the president.
Now, of course, that’s comparing 2020 exits to 2024 projections, as Guy Benson notes, so it’s all up to who turns out, and the Republicans have to turn out the voters. They can’t sit around and not vote, thinking the poll numbers are going to carry them. But those numbers indicate a hemorrhaging from all the various groups in big numbers. Given the closeness of the race in 2020, this should be making Biden and his team freak out.
I think it’s only going to get worse for them because even though Biden’s team may try to spin and hide his infirmities, have staff block off media from seeing him, and cut his remarks shorter. But Biden isn’t going to get any better; he’s just going to continue to go downhill, and there’s only so much they can do. They’re not going to be able to hide the further deterioration. Add that to the bad policy and that’s why the numbers are so bad. And they’re only going to get worse.
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