Poll: Donald Trump Increases Lead over Biden, Garners 64% Support in Primary

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; Julia Nikhinson/CNP/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump has the edge over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election race and dominates the Republican primary field, according to Emerson College Polling’s latest national survey.

The poll, published on Wednesday, shows Trump with a four-point advantage over Biden in a two-man race for the White House among registered voters. Trump takes 47 percent of the response, while Biden pulls 43 percent, and 10 percent of respondents are undecided. Trump’s lead has grown since an October Emerson poll when he pinged at 47 percent to Biden’s 45 percent.

Trump’s advantage over Biden in the latest poll expanded when third-party candidates – including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the Green Party’s Cornel West, and progressive Jill Stein – were added to the ballot. In this scenario, Trump’s support drops to 42 percent, but Biden’s takes an even harder hit, falling to 36 percent, marking a net 2-point gain to Trump’s lead compared to a head-to-head race with Biden.

In that matchup, Kennedy garners seven percent of the response, West and Stein tie at one percent, and the share of undecided voters is 13 percent.

Trump continues to dominate his opponents in the GOP primary field, taking 64 percent of the support while his remaining half-dozen opponents split 27 percent of the response among them. Nine percent of likely GOP primary voters back former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC), putting her in second place, followed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at eight percent.

From there, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy garners five percent of the vote, followed by former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) at three percent. Former Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R-AR) and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) tie at one percent, and ten percent of respondents are undecided.

Despite being in a field of just three candidates on the Democrat side of things, Biden takes a similar share of support among likely Democrat primary voters as Trump does with Republican primary voters.

Biden garners 66 percent, while Marianne Williamson comes in second place with just 5 percent, and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) rounds out the field with 2 percent. A substantial portion of Democrat primary voters, 27 percent, are undecided.

Emerson College Polling sampled 1,475 registered voters nationally from November 17-20. The credibility interval for the full sample is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The GOP primary portion of the poll included 662 respondents who plan to vote in the primary, and 559 respondents made up the Democrat primary demographic.


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