Poll: Trump Holds Double Digits Lead over Biden in Iowa

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Former President Donald Trump holds a double-digit lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head general election race in Iowa while he also enjoys a 35-point advantage in the Iowa GOP Caucus, according to an Emerson College poll. 

The poll, published on Tuesday, shows 50 percent of voters in the Hawkeye State would back Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election, placing him 11 points ahead of Biden at 39 percent. Another 11 percent are undecided in that scenario. In the 2020 election, Trump won Iowa by just over eight percent. 

When the field is expanded to include Green Party presidential candidate Cornel West, Trump’s lead over Biden grows to 13 percent. The 45th president earns 48 percent of support, while Biden takes 35 percent and 5 percent back West. The share of undecided voters increases compared to the head-to-head match-up and registers at 13 percent.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted in a release that West takes support from both Trump and Biden. 

“However, West’s voters are more willing to change their minds than Trump and Biden voters: 72% of West voters say they might vote for another candidate, compared to about two-thirds of Biden and Trump voters who plan on sticking with them,” he noted. 

Regarding the GOP horse race, the poll shows that 49 percent of Republicans and independents who plan to vote in the caucus back Trump for the nomination. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) takes 14 percent while several other candidates approach double digits. Support for Trump and DeSantis is down from when they registered at a respective 62 percent and 20 percent in May. 

Eight percent of respondents in the latest poll back Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), while former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy tie at seven percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence and Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND) each draw three percent, and two percent are behind former Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ).

The poll finds that 61 percent of GOP primary “will definitely vote for” their preferred candidates while 39 percent say their vote could be swayed, and Kimball points out Trump has the most loyal base:

Trump supporters are the most likely to stick with their candidate as 79% say they will definitely vote for the former President, while just 21% say they could change their mind. Conversely, 71% of Scott voters, 70% of Haley, 56% of DeSantis and 46% of Ramaswamy voters say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for a different candidate.

On the Democrat side of things, Biden leads the three-way race with 50 percent of support. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earned nine percent and seven percent back Marianne Williamson, while more than a third of voters were undecided. 

Emerson College sampled 896 registered voters in Iowa between September 7-9. The credibility interval for the full sample is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The credibility interval for the GOP caucus aspect of the poll is plus or minus 5.1 percent, while it is plus or minus 5.9 percent for the Democrat caucus. 

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