Even After the Guilty Verdict, Trump Is Tied With Biden in Virginia

Joe Biden - Donald Trump. (Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall; AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

In 2016, the first warning sign for Hillary Clinton on election night was the fact that it took so long to call Virginia for her. It eventually did get called for her, but the amount of time it took for the experts to determine that meant it was a much closer race than people were expecting. Ultimately, the night went Trump’s way.

Virginia currently has a Republican Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General, as well as a near-majority in the legislature. It has been trending toward the right, not a swing state by any conventional means but still a state where Republicans have enjoyed greater-than-expected success.

Late last month, we noted a poll from Roanoke College that showed Biden and Trump were tied at 42-42, with the remaining percentage being undecided. Notably, though, that was before Trump was found guilty in the now-infamous Manhattan trial.

READ MORE: Those Poll Numbers in Virginia Just Got Worse for Joe Biden

But now the hypothetical question of whether Trump’s conviction would change a person’s mind has become a reality. And it appears that just as many people are more motivated to vote for Trump as they are against him.

The latest poll out of the non-swing state of Virginia shows a 48-48 tie between Trump and Biden, and Fox News ran the poll post-conviction. It should also be noted that Trump tends to do worse in Fox News polls than one might expect from a center-right outlet – and worse than several other mainstream polls. Still, if Trump is tied with Biden in a Fox poll, things are very bad indeed.

The poll, released Thursday, shows Biden and Trump with 48% each in a head-to-head matchup in the Old Dominion State.
Biden gets strong backing from Black voters (73%), suburban women (58%), and college-educated voters (56%). 
While Biden leads among Black voters, it is nowhere near where he was in 2020 – according to the Fox News Voter Analysis. In 2020, Biden won Blacks by 81 points, compared to 48 points in the new survey. Trump nearly triples his share among Black voters: 9% in 2020 to 25% today.
Trump’s support comes from White evangelical Christians (80%), rural voters (63%), voters without a college degree (56%), and White voters (54%).

That demographic breakdown is brutal. He’s lost eight percent of Black voters and he’s only at 56 percent with educated voters. Both of those, in a normal time, should be higher for the Democratic candidate. And the fact that those Black voters are going to Trump and not just staying home is a nightmare scenario for Biden.

If you’re a Democrat (and I know y’all are here reading this because you’re keeping an eye on the enemy), there are a lot of reasons to look at this and be worried. Like I said, Trump underperforms in most polls, but especially in Fox News polls. He was just found guilty on 34 counts in a “hush money” case. He lost to Biden four years ago. There are a lot of reasons that you might expect voters to not side with Trump, and yet they are. That should terrify Democrats (and if the behind-the-scenes whispering is true, it is).

Of course, this only means that Trump and Biden are tied in Virginia now, and it is also likely that Biden will end up winning that state anyway. But if Biden is doing so poorly there, he’s doing poorly all over, and that should be the five-alarm fire for the Democrats.


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