The Black Swan Events That Could Determine This Election

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AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Some of us older folks grew up in a time of normality when chaos was not the rule and weird, life-changing things didn’t happen. The stakes were not that high when we were growing up, except for the whole imminent nuclear war thing, but now we are regularly beset by flocks of black swan events, events so significant and life-changing that they send our society and our politics off in strange new tangents. And they now happen all the time. 9/11, the Wall Street meltdown, Trump’s election, COVID, Ben Shapiro getting a No. 1 rap hit … the black swans are coming fast and furious, and there is no sign of them stopping

One or more can happen – likely will happen – this year, and that could change everything for the 2024 election.

I strongly support Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but let’s face some facts. This is an uphill fight for the President and his quest to become Grover Cleveland II. A huge number of Americans irrationally hate him despite the peace and prosperity of his prior reign. Yeah, the polls look pretty good today, but the Democrats have not opened fire with their countless billions of leftist dollars. People are just starting to pay attention to politics, and some of those polls that showed Trump way ahead are now wavering. Biden could very well win this thing, which is almost unimaginably horrible, but that’s the reality. Yet there’s another reality – the black swans have not yet come to roost. What could take place in the next eleven months could change everything, and none of these scenarios would be so shocking as to be outside the realm of reasonable possibility. In fact, “shocking” is the default setting for this election year. Let’s look at what could happen and how that might change things.

Trump Convicted, Acquitted, or Nothing At All:

The disgraceful lawfare against Donald Trump is only increasing in intensity. The bizarre and unjust eight-figure hit on Trump in a blue city courtroom last week is just the latest in what will be a never-ending series of courtroom misadventures. Pretty soon, that alleged judge in New York City is going to hit him with a nine-figure verdict in the NY attorney general’s utterly bogus civil lawsuit, but the real story is the bogus criminal cases. 

Understand that none of them have any legal merit. Zero. Nada. As far as the law goes, they are a joke. But no one’s laughing when the Democrats attempt to use the power of law enforcement to arrest and imprison their opponents. Let’s put aside how dangerous this precedent is for a moment and look at what might happen in these cases. Worst case, one or more of these garbage cases go to trial. The federal cases both look like they are wrapped up in appeals and seem likely to be kicked into 2025 or beyond. But the state court cases may go forward, and Trump will be “convicted.”

Again, these cases are a joke, but they won’t be revealed as a joke until their blue city juries have convicted the man that they hate. Trump may even be imprisoned. What will the voters think? Right now, polls say that the voters would take this nonsense seriously and look badly upon Trump if he’s branded a felon by these kangaroo courts. But is that really so? So far, all the lawfare has done is strengthen Trump’s support. Will independents believe this is justice being done, or will they see that this is an injustice in pursuit of political power perpetrated by his enemies? I don’t think Americans are stupid enough to buy the latter, but there are a lot of stupid Americans. After all, a lot of people voted for Biden.

But there’s another possibility. There’s a possibility that Trump is acquitted or somehow these cases go away due to pre-trial appellate rulings. That’s entirely possible. The whole throwing him off the ballot-thing will go away at SCOTUS; of that, there is little doubt. But the Supreme Court is also considering presidential immunity, and don’t listen to the idiot Twitter lawyers. Trump could (and should) win that. If the immunity issue goes his way Trump has triumphed, as he should.

Terrorist Attack:

The border has been and is going to remain wide open. The Republican Squish Caucus’s border compromise, which was to give Democrats millions of more immigrants in return for destroying the Republican party, seems to be going nowhere, thank goodness. The problem is that Joe Biden will continue to refuse to do his job at the border and enforce our laws. Millions of military-age males are coming into this country, and some of them want to kill us. I wrote about this in my new novel, The Attack, where thousands of military-age males infiltrate the country and trigger a devastating terrorist assault on Americans using very simple means to maximize casualties and demoralize our country. This could absolutely happen. Even some ex-FBI officials, the most incompetent people in the universe, have predicted this possibility and are warning of it. If we get hit by a massive terrorist attack that kills tens of thousands of Americans – and you need to know that this could absolutely happen because I spell it out for you in my novel – it will doom Joe Biden and the Democrats. Put aside the duty to defend Americans from being murdered, which Democrats care nothing about. Setting yourself up for that kind of fall is simply political malpractice. But no one ever accused Joe Biden of being smart.

Economic Meltdown:

We keep hearing about how Bidenomics is wonderful but look around. Does the economy look wonderful to you? Make no mistake – the stock market could tank, and the current OK times for those with a few bucks in their 401(k)s could turn sour overnight. Imagine another 2008, and this time, there are no Republicans to blame it on. A major economic downturn could change everything, especially since voters remember Trump for good times pre-COVID.

Pandemic 2: Lockdown Boogaloo:

The globalist elite got what it wanted out of COVID, and there’s no reason to believe that it won’t turn another relatively minor virus into a huge power and wealth grab like it did the last time. But normal people aren’t playing that anymore. The only people wearing masks now are freaky weirdos. No one wants the vaxx. No one trusts the institutions, and Americans are angry at their lies. But a pandemic panic could happen again because there are benefits for the left. They changed election laws because of a glorified cold, which helped Crusty squeak through. They may try it again. But will it work? Or will people rebel and support Trump even though his record on COVID is far from outstanding?

Civil War:

I called this, too, in my People’s Republic novels. The border situation is coming to a head with a potential confrontation between Governor Abbott of Texas (and 24 other governors) and our alleged President. The fact is that the Constitution requires Joe Biden to both enforce the laws and protect the states from invasion, but he is willfully doing neither. That makes for a constitutional crisis, one completely of Joe Biden’s doing, although the regime media is screaming that it’s all Texas’s fault for not meekly submitting to federal abuse and neglect. I don’t think we’re going to have another Gettysburg, but Joe Biden is a stupid, malignant man, and his administration is full of stupid, malignant people. It is entirely possible that they push this and provoke some sort of conflict. Then it gets scary. I think the great Fred Thompson said it best in “The Hunt For Red October”: “This business will get out of control. It will get out of control, and we’ll be lucky to live through it.

Some Other War:

Of course, there are bad actors out there in the world, and Joe Biden’s stupidity and weakness are inviting them to take a swing at us. The Iranians just did, killing three of our troops. Whatever the Houthis are are shooting missiles at us and laughing at us. North Korea, China, and Russia are also candidates for sparking some sort of hot war. If I were investing in Taiwan, I would go short right about now. Just wait until Ukraine collapses and the pressure from the globalists to intervene starts. It is entirely possible that we find ourselves sucked into some armed conflict that we are not capable of fighting because our Pentagon is a disaster and our commander-in-chief is a blithering idiot. 

America has no taste for another war, at least the Americans the elite expect to go fight it. Those on the left were always sissies who left the fighting to the normals, but the normals are done. They are not enlisting, and they would not take well to a draft – which you know would have plenty of exemptions for the kids of the kind of people who vote for Joe Biden. No, American normals are over fighting idiotic wars for an elite that hates them. If we end up sucked into a conflict, that changes everything, especially since Donald Trump has staked out his position as the peace candidate.

Impeachment, Hunter and Other Scandals:

The House could get its act together and impeach Biden. It will hard even for the Regime Media to cover it all up. The sordid corruption of this senile freak will not be enough to get him booted from office, but it sure could tarnish his already tarnished images, especially if the GOP presents the evidence in a clear, calm, and competent manner. So, this is one black swan he probably does not need to worry much about.

Biden Falls Out:

And then there’s the reality that Joe Biden is about 142 years old, and he could drop dead of natural causes at any time. Or his dementia could get to such a place that he can’t even fake being President any longer, no matter what they pump into his veins. Or he might get tired of it and drop out under pressure. There are rumors that Barack Obama wants him out. And Biden’s wife, who is totally a legitimate doctor, and you should respect her a lot because that means she’s smart, is never going to give up First Ladyhood voluntarily. But the Democrats might not take no for an answer. 

The question then becomes, who comes next? Do they somehow slip Michelle Obama in ahead of Kamala Harris, who is remarkable only because she’s literally the sole human being in America dumber than Joe Biden? Or does Gavin Newsom smarm his way into the nomination? The problem for Trump is that his most compelling argument to independents is, “Hey, look at that guy – he’s terrible.” What if he has to go up against someone else? What will the independents do? My guess is that Biden will hold onto the bitter end, but my intuition and $4.95 will get you a cup of Starbucks.

Trump Falls Out:

And here’s the scary reality – Trump is pretty old, too. Ignore the unflattering photos and overblown slips of the tongue. He’s in remarkable health and shows amazing vigor for someone his age, but he is his age. There is a possibility that he could fall out because of health concerns – a stroke, a heart attack, who knows? I don’t think it’ll happen, but it might. And there’s something more sinister. You’ve seen the hatred the elite has against the ex-president. You’ve seen how they’ve called him “a threat to Our Democracy” and a “fascist” and all manner of vile crap. It is not an impossibility that yet another leftist murderer could take aim at President Trump. If that happens, all bets are off. This country will convulse into chaos. So pray for his health, even if you are not supporting him in the election. Because something bad happening to Trump means something bad will happen to the United States.

We don’t know what the future will bring. We don’t know what shocking events will take place between now and November, but there is one thing we can absolutely predict. Something is going to happen. Something big is going to occur that will change everything. Let’s just hope our country can survive it.

Follow Kurt on Twitter @KurtSchlichter. Get the newest volume in the Kelly Turnbull People’s Republic series of conservative action novels set in America after a notional national divorce, the bestselling Amazon #1 Military Thriller, Overlord! And get his new novel of terrorism in America, The Attack!

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